Developers are facing a significant challenge due to players’ misconceptions about in-game probabilities. We will explore the reality behind these probabilities and the reasons for any discrepancies.
Misunderstandings of probabilities displays and player reactions
When a game developer shared their concerns about in-game odds displays on Reddit, it sparked significant attention. The poster, Cable23000, mentioned that when they indicated a “10% chance of obtaining an item” in their game, players misunderstood it as “you will definitely get the item once out of every 10 attempts.” In reality, probabilities do not work that way, and for example, even with a 50% chance, there is a 25% possibility that the item won’t drop in two consecutive tries.
The reasons for “Misleading” probabilities and examples of it
Game developers sometimes deliberately adjust probabilities to reduce player stress. In the Fire Emblem series, it is known that the displayed hit rate differs from the actual probability. For example, even if the hit rate is shown as “99,” the actual probability may be 99.99%, while a hit rate of “10” actually corresponds to only about 2%. This is considered a way to avoid the frustration players would feel if they missed despite a displayed 99% hit rate.
Player psychology and the necessity of misleading probabilities
Baldur’s Gate 3 features a system called “Karma Dice,” which adjusts odds to prevent consecutive failures or successes. When players experience consecutive failures, it creates stress from feeling that “the game is against them.” Such features are necessary to enhance the player experience. Cable23000 pointed out that players are especially prone to exaggerating their perceptions of high or low probability displays and mentioned that slightly distorting probabilities for the sake of enjoyment is a better approach.
- Misunderstandings among players about in-game probability displays exist.
- Odds are adjusted in Fire Emblem and Baldur’s Gate 3.
- To reduce player stress, probabilities are sometimes misleadingly presented.
✍️ Cable23000: Reddit game designer, post about probabilities became a topic of discussion. For more details, please see the Reddit thread.
✍️ Fire Emblem series: An example where the actual hit probability differs. For more details, please visit the official Fire Emblem website.
✍️ Baldur’s Gate 3: Features the Karma Dice system. For more details, please visit the official Baldur’s Gate 3 website.
